Unemployment Numbers Hit 9 Month High – 500,000 File New Unemployment Claims

Employers appear to be laying off workers again as applications for unemployment insurance reached the half-million mark last week for the first time since November. Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 12,000 last week to 500,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

It was the fourth increase in the past five weeks and evidence that the economic recovery has weakened. Homebuilders and other construction firms are laying off more workers as the housing sector slumps after the expiration of a popular homebuyers’ tax credit. State and local governments are also cutting jobs to close large budget gaps.

“This is obviously a disappointing number that shows ongoing weakness in the job market,” said Robert Dye, senior economist at the PNC Financial Services Group. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose by 8,000 to 482,500, the highest since December.

The increase suggests the economy is creating even fewer jobs than in the first half of this year, when private employers added an average of about 100,000 jobs per month. That’s barely enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The jobless rate has been stuck at 9.5 percent for two months. Stock futures fell on the prospects of more layoffs.

Dow Jones industrial average futures had risen by 50 points before the report was released. They dropped immediately afterward and were down six points shortly before the market opened.

Jobless claims declined steadily last year from a peak of 651,000 in March 2009 as the economy recovered from the worst downturn since the 1930s. After flattening out earlier this year claims have begun to grow again. Dye said that claims showed a similar pattern in the last two recoveries, but eventually began to fall again.

The current elevated level of claims is a sign employers are reluctant to hire until the rebound is well under way. That’s what happened in the recoveries following the 1991 and 2001 recessions, which were dubbed “jobless recoveries.”

The number of people continuing to receive benefits fell by 13,000 to 4.5 million, the department said. The continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week. But that doesn’t include millions of people receiving extended unemployment insurance, paid for by the federal government.

About 5.6 million unemployed workers were on the extended unemployment benefit rolls, as of the week ending July 31, the latest data available. That’s an increase of about 300,000 from the previous week.

During the recession, Congress added up to 73 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 weeks customarily provided by the states. The number of people on the extended rolls has increased sharply in recent weeks after Congress renewed the extended program last month.

It had expired in June.

Private employers added only 71,000 jobs in July. But that increase was offset by the loss of 202,000 government jobs, including 143,000 temporary census positions. July marked the third straight month that the private sector hired cautiously.

Economists are concerned that the unemployment rate will start rising again because overall economic growth has weakened significantly since the start of the year. In a healthy economy, jobless claims usually drop below 400,000. But the recent increases in claims provide further evidence that the economy has slowed and could slip back into a recession.

Many analysts are worried that economic growth will ebb further in the second half of this year. After growing at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the economy’s growth slowed to 2.4 percent in the April-to-June period.

Some economists forecast it will drop to as low as 1.5 percent in the second half of this year.

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2010/08/19/2010-08-19_half_a_million_are_jobless_unemployment_numbers_hit_9month_high.html#ixzz0x43i6hde

Economy Continues To Slow – 6.3% Decrease Reported

Economy dips at slightly faster 6.3 percent pace

WASHINGTON – The economy shrank at a 6.3 percent pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, and probably isn’t doing much better now.

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the economy was sinking a bit faster than the 6.2 percent annualized drop for the October-December quarter estimated a month ago.

And the pain has persisted in the current quarter. New claims for unemployment benefits last week rose to a seasonally adjusted 652,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 644,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The total number of people claiming benefits jumped to 5.56 million, higher than economists’ projections of 5.48 million, and a ninth straight record-high. [SEE: Unemployment claims rise to 40-year high; retail sales drop – http://www.lowellsun.com/business/ci_11904696 ]

The figures indicate the labor market remains weak even as some other economic indicators come in better than expected.

Consumers are cutting back under the weight of rising unemployment, falling home values and shrinking investment portfolios. Those factors have forced companies to slash production and jobs. All the negative forces are feeding on each other in a vicious cycle that has deepened the recession, now in its second year.

Economists were bracing for an even sharper 6.5 percent annualized decline in the government’s third and final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter.

Still, the results were dismal. The economy started off 2008 on feeble footing, picked up a bit of speed in the spring and then contracted at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

The faster downhill slide in the final quarter came as the financial crisis — the worst since the 1930s — intensified.

The main culprit behind the GDP downgrade was that businesses’ cut inventories more deeply than estimated a month ago. That shaved 0.11 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP, rather than adding 0.16 percentage points in the previous report.

Builders also cut spending on commercial construction more deeply through previously thought.

Many analysts believe the economy will keep shrinking at least through the first six months of this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090326/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

This last comment is the key. The recession may now be in it’s 16th month. History teaches us that the “recovery cycle” will begin in the next 3 to 6 months – without any Government intervention or the incredible spending presently scheduled by the Government. The inevitable increase in taxes, to pay for the spending, and the equally inevitable increase in interest rates associated with massive Government borrowing are, or should be, the real worry. Higher taxes and higher interest rates may act to stall or reverse the normal recovery “cycle”.  

The earliest of  the Government’s “scheduled” spending will not  be infused into the economy for 36 to 48 months. Most of  the “scheduled” spending won’t even take place for 36 to 48 months. 

03/25/09   –  A $34.0 billion auction of five-year Treasury notes drew lighter demand than recent offerings, and may have jogged concerns that foreign buyers could lose their appetite for purchasing U.S. debt.  http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/25/briefing-americas-afternoon-markets-economy-treasury.html?partner=yahootix

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