Watts Up With That? – New paper makes a hockey “sticky wicket” of Mann et al 98/99/08
Sticky Wicket – phrase, meaning: “A difficult situation”.
Now, there’s a new look to the familiar “hockey stick”.
The “infamous Hockey Stick” below:
“Not only are the results stunning, but the paper is highly readable, written in a sensible style that most laymen can absorb, even if they don’t understand some of the finer points of bayesian and loess filters, or principal components. Not only that, this paper is a confirmation of McIntyre and McKitrick’s work, with a strong nod to Wegman. I highly recommend reading this and distributing this story widely.”
The original paper submitted by McShane and Wyner to Annals of Applied Statistics here: A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?
On the one hand, we conclude unequivocally that the evidence for a ”long-handled” hockey stick (where the shaft of the hockey stick extends to the year 1000 AD) is lacking in the data … Consequently, the long flat handle of the hockey stick is best understood to be a feature of regression and less a reflection of our knowledge of the truth… Climate scientists have greatly underestimated the uncertainty of proxy based reconstructions and hence have been overconfident in their models…
Filed under: "Cap & Trade" CO2 Taxes, "Cap & Trade" Impuestos de CO2, Climate Gate, ClimateGate, Global Warming, Global Warming Questioned | Tagged: Annals Of Applied Statistics, Climate Gate, Global Warming, Mann's Hocket Stick, Mann's Hocket Stick - A Predicitive Failure |