Minority report: 50 year warming due to natural causes: 06/08/10 By Roy W Spencer, PhD

Minority report: 50 year warming due to natural causes

Minority report: 50 year warming due to natural causesPosted on June 7, 2010 by Anthony Watts  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/07/minority-report-50-year-warming-due-to-natural-causes/

Warming in Last 50 Years Predicted by Natural Climate Cycles

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

One of the main conclusions of the 2007 IPCC report was that the warming over the last 50 years was most likely due to anthropogenic pollution, especially increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel burning.

But a minority of climate researchers have maintained that some — or even most — of that warming could have been due to natural causes. For instance, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are natural modes of climate variability which have similar time scales to warming and cooling periods during the 20th Century. Also, El Nino — which is known to cause global-average warmth — has been more frequent in the last 30 years or so; the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of El Nino and La Nina activity.

A simple way to examine the possibility that these climate cycles might be involved in the warming over the last 50 years is to do a statistical comparison of the yearly temperature variations versus the PDO, AMO, and SOI yearly values. But of course, correlation does not prove causation.

So, what if we use the statistics BEFORE the last 50 years to come up with a model of temperature variability, and then see if that statistical model can “predict” the strong warming over the most recent 50 year period? That would be much more convincing because, if the relationship between temperature and these 3 climate indicies for the first half of the 20th Century just happened to be accidental, we sure wouldn’t expect it to accidentally predict the strong warming which has occurred in the second half of the 20th Century, would we?

Temperature, or Temperature Change Rate?
This kind of statistical comparison is usually performed with temperature. But there is greater physical justification for using the temperature change rate, instead of temperature. This is because if natural climate cycles are correlated to the time rate of change of temperature, that means they represent heating or cooling influences, such as changes in global cloud cover (albedo).

Such a relationship, shown in the plot below, would provide a causal link of these natural cycles as forcing mechanisms for temperature change, since the peak forcing then precedes the peak temperature.
                                                                     

Predicting Northern Hemispheric Warming Since 1960
Since most of the recent warming has occurred over the Northern Hemisphere, I chose to use the CRUTem3 yearly record of Northern Hemispheric temperature variations for the period 1900 through 2009. From this record I computed the yearly change rates in temperature. I then linearly regressed these 1-year temperature change rates against the yearly average values of the PDO, AMO, and SOI.

I used the period from 1900 through 1960 for “training” to derive this statistical relationship, then applied it to the period 1961 through 2009 to see how well it predicted the yearly temperature change rates for that 50 year period. Then, to get the model-predicted temperatures, I simply added up the temperature change rates over time.

The result of this exercise in shown in the following plot.

What is rather amazing is that the rate of observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere since the 1970’s matches that which the PDO, AMO, and SOI together predict, based upon those natural cycles’ PREVIOUS relationships to the temperature change rate (prior to 1960).

Again I want to emphasize that my use of the temperature change rate, rather than temperature, as the predicted variable is based upon the expectation that these natural modes of climate variability represent forcing mechanisms — I believe through changes in cloud cover — which then cause a lagged temperature response.

This is powerful evidence that most of the warming that the IPCC has attributed to human activities over the last 50 years could simply be due to natural, internal variability in the climate system. If true, this would also mean that (1) the climate system is much less sensitive to the CO2 content of the atmosphere than the IPCC claims, and (2) future warming from greenhouse gas emissions will be small.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/07/minority-report-50-year-warming-due-to-natural-causes/

Shame on REUTERS: News Agency Caught Doctoring Flotilla Photos – “Photos of Bloody Knife Wielding Humanitarian’s” cropped prior to publication

Shame on Reuters.

What are we to think when a News Agency starts “doctoring” or “falsifying” news photographs to support its slant on a story.

Following the Israeli boarding of the alleged “humanitarian flotilla” from Turkey, pictures of the boarding were published in Turkey’s national press. Later the pictures were “cropped” and “enlarged” and published throughout the world by Reuters.

As it turns out Reuters doctored the original photos.

The original of the 1st photo shows a “humanitarian” standing with knife in hand over a bleeding IDF soldier laying on the boat’s deck. The Reuter’s photo “crops” the knife from the “humanitarians” hand.

In the original of the second photo, below, smeared blood is clearly visable on the railing of the boat, an IDF soldier is laying on the deck while a life jacketed “humanitarian” stands above him and a knife is clearly visable in the hand of a second “humanitarian” on the right. The second Reuters photo “crops” both the knife and the blood smear from the photo. When the author of  http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/36489_Another_Cropped_Reuters_Photo_Deletes_Another_Knife_-_And_a_Pool_of_Blood  lightened the photo in his “photoshop” an additional IDF soldier was revealed laying on the deck of the  boat with a metal pipe beneath him in a pool of blood speading out from the soldier’s head.  

Journalistically, there is no way to justify these alterations. The alterations completely change the “voice” of the photos and have been altered to tell a “false story”.

Reuter’s must act quickly and decisively and fire both the photographer and photo editor responsible for this charade.

View the photos here: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWMxZTJlM2IwMGZjODYyMDE4NWE4M2Y3YTUyMzU0MjE

and here http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-we-go-again.

and here: http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/36489_Another_Cropped_Reuters_Photo_Deletes_Another_Knife_-_And_a_Pool_of_Blood

Additional Photo Notes: 

Notes: In the 2nd set of photos displayed here (http://hartalmsm.wordpress.com/2010/06/09/did-reuters-crop-gaza-flotilla-photos-to-hide-activists%e2%80%99-weapons/ ) and below, note the “stab mark” on the Israeli’s soldiers left leg approxiately 5 inches below his belt (on our right – the soldiers left). Also note that the lifejacketed “humanitarian” has this soldier in a submission hold (see the Israeli’s wrist) also note the 3rd person’s hand and blood stains on the Israeli’s right leg, below the strap. (click on photo above for enlargement). A total of three “humanitarians” attacking this one “subdued” soldier with knifes. Gee, and some of these “humanitarians” were eventually shot & killed. How could that have happened?

ADVISORY: If your search engine is YAHOO – note that YAHOO, at present, claims it can’t “locate” the sites. Luckily for us, Google has no problem finding the photos or the articles associated with them. Gee, why can’t YAHOO find the sites?

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