May 2010 Jobs Report – Econcomy Is Still Losing Ground – Job Creation Isn’t Keeping Pace With The Number Of New Workers

The following is being reported by the Associated Press:

“The government also said 431,000 jobs overall were created last month, but most of those jobs, 411,000, came from the government’s hiring of temporary census workers. The overall number also fell short of expectations. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast employers would add 513,000 jobs.” http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100604/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street  http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/06/Heritage-Employment-Report-May-Jobs-Struggle-to-Appear

The straight forward math is this, private employers added 20,000 (20 thousand) employees last month when a gain of 513,000 was expected. Over the next 60 days, the 411,000 part time census workers will rejoin the ranks of the unemployed. Last month’s (April 2010) job hires were largely due to “temporary summer hires”.

The Obama Adminiistration is claiming that the unemployment rate has dropped from 9.8% to 9.7% – a drop that isn’t being related to temporary hiring (becasue if it was related to temporary hiring – then the Obama Administration would need to report an increase in the unemployment rate after the people are “laid off” from their temporaray work)  the “lower” unemployement number is being related to the fact that “300,000 people have given up on their job searchs”.

Please note that the Government does not count an individual who has exhausted their unemployment benefits as being “unemployed”.

In our recent past the Liberal Media has reported that it takes between 150,000 and 200,000 new jobs each and every month to keep up with population growth – any “private job” creation number below that means the economy is shrinking. These statements are correct. 

With only 21,000 jobs created by private employers in May 2010, we are somewhere between 130,000 and 180,000 jobs short of breaking even for the month.

Personally, I find it surprising that no media outlet has pointed out that, over the last 6 months, the Obama Adminstration has reported that the usual “growth” in the number of individuals entering the “job market” has been off set by an equal number of people “giving up their job searches”. What a remarkable coincidence! 

Read and compare these historical statements from our liberal media: 

  •  The New York Times, 08/08/03: The economy must add about 150,000 jobs or more each month to keep up with population growth and bring down the jobless rate over a long period of time. In the 1990’s, the economy created an average of 181,000 jobs a month.  http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/08/business/08ECON.html?pagewanted=2 
  • The San Francisco Examiner – April 3, 2004: Total jobs outside the farm sector soared by 308,000, the Labor Department reported Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in February primarily because 179,000 people entered the labor force. (A net gain of 129,000 jobs and the unemployment rate went up) http://articles.sfgate.com/2004-04-03/news/17423578_1_worst-job-recovery-job-growth-labor-market
  • Washinton Post 09/04/04 : Employers added 144,000 jobs to their non-farm payrolls in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, an improvement after two months in which job growth essentially stalled, but barely enough to keep pace with population growth. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A60680-2004Sep3?language=printer
  • The Los Angles Times 09/04/04: U.S. employers added a net 144,000 jobs to their payrolls in August and the nation’s unemployment rate dropped a notch to 5.4% (WOW – 5.4%, not 9.9%) –  Unless employment growth averages 228,250 a month from September through December, Bush will be the first post-Depression president to finish his term with fewer jobs than when he started. http://articles.latimes.com/2004/sep/04/business/fi-jobs4
  • The Boston Globe 01/08/05: US employers boosted payrolls by 157,000 jobs in December, keeping the economy on a path of moderate expansion and completing the first year of job growth since 2000. The month’s job gains were slightly less than analysts expected, and just enough to keep up with the natural growth of the labor force and prevent unemployment from rising.  Over the past year, the economy has averaged 186,000 new jobs a month, and whittled three-tenths of a point from the December 2003 unemployment rate of 5.7 percent. All told, the nation added a net 2.2 million jobs last year, the most since 1999, when the economy created 3.2 million. http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2005/01/08/us_gains_157000_jobs_in_december/

Until the Obama Adminstration admits we are not on course for a recovery, the proper corrective measures will not be taken.

“Spinning” the numbers doesn’t help the average Amercian or improve our economy …..

We were promised that if the “Stimulus Plan” was passed the unemployment rate would not rise above 8%, and that millions of new jobs would be created in the “private sector”. Reuters reported that the Country lost over 3 million jobs in the 1st 10 months after the “stimulus” was signed 18 months ago. http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/30/afx7069921.html

The New York Times has reported that the “total number of jobs lost” through the 1st of this year is 8 million. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/weekinreview/04norris.html?_r=2&scp=2&sq=floyd&st=cse

Between the start of the recession and the 1st of Janauary 2010 a total of 8.1 million jobs were lost.   http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/jobs_picture_20100108/

At the end of January 2010, the U.S. Government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of “jobs lost” had increased to 8.4 million.  http://dailycaller.com/2010/02/08/unemployment-drops-while-total-jobs-lost-increases/ 

On that same day, the Obama Administration reported that the unemployment rate dropped from 10% to 9.7 %. This happened despite the fact that the Administration reported that they had “overestimated job creation” by over 800,000 jobs. We lost 800,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped from 10% to 9.7%.  http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/04/news/economy/jobs_outlook/

In March 2010 the BLS reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in February 2010. A loss of 20,000 jobs would mean that the US was between 170,000 and 220,000 jobs short of breaking even in February 2010. The “official” unemployment rate remained “unchanged”. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0303/breaking54.html

In April 2010 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 162,000 jobs were created in March 2010. Temporary census jobs counted for 48,000 of the jobs while 114,000 were in the private sector. The 114,000 “private sector” jobs were certainly a welcome sign, but the number of new jobs were 50,000 jobs below the number needed to “break even” for the month. The “official” unemployment rate remained unchanged.  http://www.employmentmetrix.com/blog/2010/04/good-news-for-job-seekers-march-jobs-report-shows-growth.html?no_prefetch=1

The report for May 2010, which was relased today, is discussed above. (411,000 of 431,000 jobs created are temporary census jobs). The 20.000 jobs created in the private sector falls far short of the 150,000 to 200,000 needed to break even for the month, however, we are told that the unemployment rate dropped from 9.8% to 9.7% because 300,000 “unemployed” workers stopped looking for work.

Exactly where are these 300,000 unemployed workers who suddenly gave up on finding work? What a surpise! A 6th straight month where the “job creation numbers” fall short of the “break even point” without a single increase in the “unemployment rate”.  

I’m sorry, I don’t believe it for a minute. These numbers are more thoroughly cooked than my Christmas Goose!   

If an individual has “access” to unemployment benefits they must report that they are “able, available and seeking” work …… in order to collect benefits. 

It appears that the number of “lay-offs” per month may have returned to pre-recession levels, however, new job creation is not keeping pace with the natural and historical growth in the Country’s labor pool. If “job creation” isn’t keeping pace with the natural growth rate of the “labor pool” we should be seeing, as we have always seen in the past, an increase in the monthly unemployment rate.  http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/06/Heritage-Employment-Report-May-Jobs-Struggle-to-Appear

The economy is not in recovery and if the books were not being cooked, the unemployment rate would be rising.

When President Obama says “our economic policies are working” and “we are heading in the right direction” he is either in self denial or he is, as is claimed, more interested in “spinning” the facts for his personal poltical benefit than he is interested in helping working Americans, or more imporantly, helping those Americans who wish they were working.

For a comparison of the average annual unemployment rates during the George W Bush Presidency and our 1st 18 months under Barack Obama (Chart of average annual unemployment rates from 1948 through 2009) see: http://www.miseryindex.us/URbyyear.asp?StartYear=1948&EndYear=2009

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