Unemployment And 1st Time Unemployment Claims Are On The Rise

Preview of your graph

Preview of your graph

Biden is simply unbelievable. The recession is over. Let us all sing, “happy days are here again”.

I’m just so tired of the Administration’s constant spinning of the economic numbers.

Look, things need to be done, now, to turn this economy around and what has been done todate isn’t working. People’s lifes are being ruined while they play politics

The Question American’s Want Answered: Is there an improving trend in the unemployment rate.

Answer: No. In fact, unemployment and 1st time claims are on the rise.

Last month, the Administration reported, incorrectly, that unemployment had decreased from 9.5% to 9.4%. That number was later revised upward, however, the upward revision was not reported in the press. Today, unemployment is at 9.7% (a 26 year high) and is expected to top 10% before year end and not see any significant improvement until 2011, 16 months from now. Both the Congressional Budget Office and the White House have reported these statistics.

The Unemployment Trend – December 2008 to September 2009.

At the end of December 2008 the unemployment rate was 7.1%. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.pdf    1st time unemployment claims for that month stood at 524,000, a number described by the press as “astounding”, “massive”, “devastating”. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/news/economy/jobless_claims/?postversion=2009011509

The unemployment trend: 2008 ended with an unemployment rate of 7.1%. Today’s unemployment rate is 9.7% and is projected to top 10% by year end and to remain above 10% for at least the next 12 months. The unemployment “trend” is still moving upward and even the White House says we should not expect improvement in the next 12 months.

The layoff trend: At the end of December 2008, 524,000 1st time claims were filed. This number grew over the next 8 weeks and “peaked” in February 2009, 6 months ago, at 667,000. Over the next 10 weeks 1st time claims slowly declined to 524,000.  

NOTE: The 2009 low of 524,000 1st time claims is identical to the number of 1st time claims filed in December 2008. At no time in 2009 have 1st time claims dropped below 524,000.

Since reaching the 2009 low of 524,000, some 7 weeks ago, 1st time claims have reversed course and are on the increase, now at 570,000 plus 1st time claims in August.

Is there an improvement in the trend of layoffs? No. We entered the year at the level of 524,000 1st time claims. That number grew to 667,000 claims 8 weeks later. 1st time claims slowly declined for the next 10 weeks to that same 524,000 level we had last December – a number that rightly had people in a panic. Over the last 7 weeks the number of 1st time claims has risen again to 570,000. So, while claims are not at all times high, they are, in fact, heading in the wrong direction again. Over the last 7 weeks claims have been on the increase from 2009 lows and have returned to levels well above the levels at the end of 2008. 

8 weeks up, 10 weeks down, 7 weeks up again ….. that isn’t a trend and if it is a trend, it isn’t the one being claimed ….

The Administration may have an opportunity to brag about a significant drop in the unemployment rate next month. 1.3 million Americans will exhaust benefits in the next month and be removed from the count. That is correct, benefits exhausted, you no longer count as unemployed. Just hope these politicians don’t figure out that using their accounting techniques, if they cancel all unemployment benefit programs – they can claim full or 100% employment. I can hear V.P. Biden already, “the most prosperous time in our generation – no one is unemployed”.

I’m still waiting for an explanation on how there could be 524,000 1st time claims filed in July 2009 with no increase in the unemployment rate. When 524,000 1st time claims were filed in December 2008, the unemployment rate went up from 6.5% to 7.1%. When 631,000 1st time claims were reported in January 2009, unemployment jumped from 7.1 to 7.6% and so on and so on.

Cooking the books again?

%d bloggers like this: