Just Stop The Spin On Unemployment – Unemployment & 1st Time Claims Trending Upward – 1.3 Million Will Lose Benefits In The Next 30 Days

Biden is simply unbelievable. The recession is over. Let us all sing, “happy days are here again”.

I’m just so tired of the Administration’s constant spinning of the economic numbers.

Look, things need to be done, now, to turn this economy around and what has been done todate isn’t working. People’s lifes are being ruined while they play politics.

The Question American’s Want Answered: Is there an improving trend in the unemployment rate.

Answer: No. In fact, unemployment and 1st time claims are on the rise.

Last month, the Administration reported, incorrectly, that unemployment had decreased from 9.5% to 9.4%. That number was later revised upward, however, the upward revision was not reported in the press. Today, unemployment is at 9.7% and is expected to top 10% before year end and not see any significant improvement until 2011, 16 months from now. Both the Congressional Budget Office and the White House have reported these statistics.

The Unemployment Trend – December 2008 to September 2009.

At the end of December 2008 the unemployment rate was 7.1%. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.pdf    1st time unemployment claims for that month stood at 524,000, a number described by the press as “astounding”, “massive”, “devastating”. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/news/economy/jobless_claims/?postversion=2009011509

At the end of January 2009 the unemployment rate was reported as 7.6%.  1st time claims at 631,000.

At the end of February 2009 the unemployment rate was 8.1%. 1st time claims at 667,000.

In early February we were promised that if the “Stimulus” was passed unemployment would not top 8.4%. Quite a promise from a group of people who now claim they never read the legislation before they signed it.

At the end of March 2009 the unemployment rate was 8.5%. 1st time claims at 654,000. http://www.nypost.com/seven/03132009/business/jobless_claims_hit_654_000_159284.htm

At the end of April 2009 the unemployment rate was 8.9%.  1st time claims at 611,000.

At the end of May 2009 the unemployment rate was 9.4%. 1st time claims at 623,000. http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/28/news/economy/initial_claims.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009052809

At the end of June 2009 the unemployment rate was 9.5%. 1st time claims at 608,000. http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=437671&cust=mam&year=2009#top

The week ending July 11 2009 the Government reported the unemployment rate was 9.4%*, 1st time claims were at 524,000. The press did not refer to this number as “astounding”, “massive” or “devastating”. In fact, this number is now being hailed as the sign we have turned the economic  corner.  

One week later, the week ending July 18, 2009, 1st time unemployment numbers were reported as 557,000.

The week ending August 8, 2009, 1st time unemployment benefits were reported at 561,000.

The week ending August 15, 2009, 1st time unemployment benefits were reported at 576,000.

The week ending August 22, 2009, 1st time claims at 574,000 (Preliminary – prior to revision)  

At the end of August 2009 the unemployment rate was reported as 9.7%, with 570,000 1st Time Claims.(Preliminary – prior to revision). http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

The unemployment trend: 2008 ended with an unemployment rate of 7.1%. Today’s unemployment rate is 9.7% and is projected to top 10% by year end and to remain above 10% for at least the next 12 months. The unemployment “trend” is still moving upward and even the White House says we should not expect improvement in the next 12 months.

The layoff trend: At the end of December 2008, 524,000 1st time claims were filed. This number grew over the next 8 weeks and “peaked” in February 2009, 6 months ago, at 667,000. Over the next 10 weeks 1st time claims slowly declined to 524,000.  NOTE: The 2009 low of 524,000 1st time claims is identical to the number of 1st time claims filed in December 2008. At no time in 2009 have 1st time claims dropped below 524,000.

Since reaching the 2009 low of 524,000, some 7 weeks ago, 1st time claims have reversed course and are on the increase, now at 570,000 plus 1st time claims in August.

Is there an improvement in the trend of layoffs? No. We entered the year at the level of 524,000 1st time claims. That number grew to 667,000 claims 8 weeks later. 1st time claims slowly declined for the next 10 weeks to that same 524,000 level we had last December – a number that rightly had people in a panic. Over the last 7 weeks the number of 1st time claims has risen again to 570,000. So, while claims are not at all times high, they are, in fact, heading in the wrong direction again. Over the last 7 weeks claims have been on the increase from 2009 lows and have returned to levels well above the levels at the end of 2008. 

8 weeks up, 10 weeks down, 7 weeks up again ….. that isn’t a trend and if it is a trend, it isn’t the one being claimed ….

The Administration may have an opportunity to brag about a significant drop in the unemployment rate next month. 1.3 million Americans will exhaust benefits in the next month and be removed from the count. That is correct, benefits exhausted, you no longer count as unemployed. Just hope these politicians don’t figure out that using their accounting techniques, if they cancel all unemployment benefit programs – they can claim full or 100% employment. I can hear V.P. Biden already, “the most prosperous time in our generation – no one is unemployed”.

*The July 11th number was later revised upward and with that revision the unemployment rate should have been reported as 9.5% – meaning no change in the rate for the month of July – not a decrease. It was simply a matter of manufacturering “good economic news” in an attempt to improve some politicians poll numbers before the summer recess – there was enough heat over the health care bill and 7 straight monthly increases in the uneployment rate, after the “promise” that the “stimulus” would hold unemployment to 8.4%, it was just to much – so they cooked the books again …..  

I’m still waiting for an explanation on how there could be 524,000 1st time claims filed in July 2009 with no increase in the unemployment rate. When 524,000 1st time claims were filed in December 2008, the unemployment rate went up from 6.5% to 7.1%. When 631,000 1st time claims were reported in January 2009, unemployment jumped from 7.1 to 7.6% and so on and so on.    

If you are wondering if the economy “created” 524,000 “new jobs” that month – the answer is no. The Government just “added” make believe jobs, jobs that just don’t exist, to the equation – they call that “adjusting” the equation …….. No wonder the Government has put us $12 Trillion into debt.

The Administration is fudging as hard as they can to prevent from posting that 10% unemployment rate until they see if the can force through this “Healthcare” boondoogle ……. the White House admits that the number is coming ….

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